Oscar Night 2014: Predictions and Winners

In the tradition of the Academy Awards, I have my thoughts regarding the upcoming award show which airs tonight. I admit that these are a little later than usual, but I got sidetracked and was unable to see all of the major films until closer to the awards show. I hope that I have been able to get a good enough sense of the awards this year to make some good predictions.

First of all, I am glad that Ellen Degeneres is hosting again this year. While Billy Crystal gives more of the classic feel for the award show hosts, Ellen projects a bit of that classic element with her own flair and twist. She is light, fun, and hilarious. There is also a great chance that she will dance for this upcoming evening.

Before honoring the nominees and the winners, it is good to pay tribute to the snubs who deserved recognition. The most obvious of the missing films was The Butler. Forest Whitaker provided one of his better performances but was left off of the list, as was the film for Best Picture. Fruitvale Station star Michael B. Johnson also has reason to be a bit upset for being left out of the nominees. Though his contemporary performance seemed out of the pattern of films based on historic true events, he was able to project a hard-hitting, thought-provoking image of a misunderstood man based on his race and class. Idris Elba’s and Naomie Harris’s performances in Mandela were also quite captivating. Since the award committee seems to be against comedic or happy story lines, Saving Mr. Banks and its lead actor Tom Hanks (also for both this film and Captain Philips) were unable to be included. Emma Thompson could easily have been nominated for her role as the guarded creator of Mary Poppins. The indie hit Inside Llewyn Davis and its lead Oscar Isaacs seemed to all short as well, though indie hits are typically consider for Oscar recognition. Though Frozen has a strong chance of winning Best Animated Feature, it is odd that Pixar’s hit Monsters University was left off of the list.

So here are the predictions (post any agreements or challenges in the comments section):

Best Picture

• My Prediction: 12 Years a Slave – This film has all of the elements that the committee loves: a political/social justice message, excellent acting, dynamic directing, and all the drama anyone could need.
• My Spoilers: Dallas Buyers Club (Some of the best acting of the year and a gripping story); American Hustle (All-star cast, great acting, and a new favorite director)
• Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Actor in a Leading Role

• My Prediction: Matthew McConaughey – While I was skeptical at first, he gave up a lot to play his role and did so with such tenacity and grit. His character’s transformation was phenomenal.
• My Spoiler: Chiwetel Ejiofor (Would not be surprised for him to take it); Leonardo DiCaprio (While the fan favorite and a great actor, he was outplayed this year)
• Winner: Matthew McConaughey

Actor in a Supporting Role

• My Prediction: Jared Leto – Just as compelling as McConaughey, he owned the role at a level that puts him way above his competition.
• My Spoiler: Barkhad Abdi (Compelling and scary performance of a desperate man); Michael Fassbender (Somewhat scary as well, also held a strong level of intensity)
• Winner: Jared Leto

Actress in a Leading Role

• My Prediction: Cate Blanchett – While I do not agree with her likelihood to walk home with the award, she is somewhat compelling with her breaks from reality and inner monologue.
• My Spoiler: Judi Dench (Should win for giving an amazingly adorable performance)
• Winner: Cate Blanchett

Actress in a Supporting Role

• My Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o – While Chiwetel may not get the win, Lupita deserves just as much credit for her on-screen, gritty performance.
• My Spoiler: Jennifer Lawrence (Everyone seems to enjoy an unstable time bomb)
• Winner: Lupita Nyong’o

Animated Feature Film

• My Prediction: Frozen – The song alone may give it a win, but it is a warm-hearted story of a set of princesses trying to manage their own individual challenges.
• My Spoiler: The Wind Rises (Beautiful story that will hardly get its due)
• Winner: Frozen

Cinematography

• My Prediction: Gravity
• My Spoiler: Nebraska
• Winner: Gravity

Costume Design

• My Prediction: The Great Gatsby
• My Spoiler: American Hustle
• Winner: The Great Gatsby

Directing

• My Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron – Directed an artistically beautiful film which captivated with only one significant on-screen performance.
• My Spoiler: Steve McQueen (The film speaks for itself)
• Winner: Alfonso Cuaron

Documentary (Feature)

• My Prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom
• My Spoiler: The Act of Killing
• Winner: 20 Feet from Stardom

Documentary (Short Subject)

• My Prediction: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
• My Spoiler: Facing Fear
• Winner: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Film Editing

• My Prediction: Gravity
• My Spoiler: Captain Phillips
• Winner: Gravity

Foreign Language

• My Prediction: The Great Beauty (Italy)
• My Spoiler: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
• Winner: The Great Beauty

Makeup

• My Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club
• My Spoiler: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa (Few options available…)
• Winner: Dallas Buyers Club

Music (Original Score)

• My Prediction: Gravity
• My Spoiler: Her
• Winner: Gravity

Music (Original Song)

• My Prediction: Let It Go – Frozen
• My Spoiler: Ordinary Love – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; The Moon Song – Her
• Winner: Let It Go – Frozen

Production Design

• My Prediction: 12 Years a Slave
• My Spoiler: The Great Gatsby
• Winner: The Great Gatsby

Short Film (Animated)

• My Prediction: Get a Horse!
• My Spoiler: Room on the Broom
• Winner: Mr. Hublot

Short Film (Live Action)

• My Prediction: The Voorman Problem
• My Spoiler: Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa?
• Winner: Helium

Sound Editing

• My Prediction: Gravity
• My Spoiler: Lone Survivor
• Winner: Gravity

Sound Mixing

• My Prediction: Gravity
• My Spoiler: Lone Survivor
• Winner: Gravity

Visual Effects

• My Prediction: Gravity
• My Spoiler: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Winner: Gravity

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• My Prediction: John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave – Likely challenging for the most overall wins this season, the story was gripping and terrifying all at the same time.
• My Spoiler: Billy Ray for Captain Phillips
• Winner: John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• My Prediction: Spike Jonze for Her – This was a wildly inventive story which surprised its viewers. While not a hit with everyone, originality certainly gives is credibility.
• My Spoiler: Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russel for American Hustle
• Winner: Spike Jonze for Her

Percentage Correct: 21/24 – 87.5%

Percentage from 2013: 18/24 – 75%

Biggest Winners: Gravity (7)

Other Winners:

• 12 Years a Slave (3)
• Dallas Buyers Club (3)
• Frozen (2)
• The Great Gatsby (2)
• 20 Feet from Stardom (1)
• Blue Jasmine (1)
• Helium (1)
• Her (1)
• Mr. Hublot (1)
• The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (1)
• The Great Beauty (1)