Oscar Night 2015: Predictions and Winners

Posted: February 22, 2015 in Award Season
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Another year, another set of predictions. For anyone reading this blog at the moment, you may have noticed the high volume of reviews within the past week (particularly the night before the big show). I enjoy using the Oscars as an excuse to watch some of the best that cinema has to offer each year. Without it, I may have missed out on the excellent performance of Julianne Moore in Still Alice or the palpable tension from Whipash. Before getting to the nominees, let’s take a look at the upcoming show.

Ellen did a great job last year, but Neil Patrick Harris is back. No doubt about whether he will take a couple of jabs at one of his projects of the past year, Gone Girl. He may have a thing or two to say about his role in the film or about Ben Affleck’s performance. Otherwise, I see him knocking it out of the park, considering it is not the first award show he has hosted.

There were some serious snubs this year. The first thought that I had was that everything was not awesome because The Lego Movie failed to receive a nomination for animated feature. While How to Train Your Dragon 2 was a phenomenal story, there was something about The Lego Movie that stood out. The immediate second issue was with Selma. While it was nominated for 3 awards, including Best Picture, there was a clear absence in the categories for direction and actor. David Oyelowo gave a phenomenal performance as MLK and Ava DuVernay’s absence from the directing category can only be explained by a combination of a tough field and her presence as the newcomer in the area of direction. Snowpiercer may have had a tough time against the more traditional theater releases, but the Netflix film was a strange but enthralling ride through a dystopian future unlike others before it. Only Lovers Left Alive was a truly creative and trippy concept, but the costumes were rather impressive. While Under the Skin may have been a weird film, there was probably a place for a nomination for either Best Picture or Best Actress.

So let’s get to the predictions (post any agreements or challenges in the comments section):

Best Picture

  • My Prediction: Birdman – While this is probably the tightest race of the entire show, the comedy seemed to have an odd momentum that has raged since around the holiday season.
  • My Spoilers: Boyhood – There is a very strong chance that this one can steal it. The film is unlike nearly any other and would be deserving. Whiplash – Although unlikely, the incredible acting and gripping story make this a hard film to ignore.
  • Winner: Birdman

Actor in a Leading Role

  • My Prediction: Eddie Redmayne – It would be hard for the Academy to ignore this one. His performance as Stephen Hawking was both charming and tragically beautiful.
  • My Spoiler: Michael Keaton – His performance was just so meta, considering that he was basically playing himself.
  • Winner: Eddie Redmayne

Actor in a Supporting Role

  • My Prediction: J.K. Simmons – Who else can take it?
  • My Spoiler: n/a
  • Winner: J.K. Simmons

Actress in a Leading Role

  • My Prediction: Julianne Moore – As Alice, she made you feel like you were one of the family going through the tragedy with her.
  • My Spoiler: Rosamund Pike – She is the only other actress to truly steal the show for her film.
  • Winner: Julianne Moore

Actress in a Supporting Role

  • My Prediction: Patricia Arquette – While overall performances were solid, hers was above the rest.
  • My Spoiler: n/a
  • Winner: Patricia Arquette

Animated Feature Film

  • My Prediction: How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • My Spoiler: The Lego Movie…oh, wait…
  • Winner: Big Hero 6

Cinematography

  • My Prediction: Birdman
  • My Spoiler: Mr. Turner
  • Winner: Birdman

Costume Design

  • My Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel 
  • My Spoiler: Into the Woods
  • Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Directing

  • My Prediction: Richard Linklater – Boyhood was just an amazing achievement in filmmaking over the span of 12 years.
  • My Spoiler: Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman will be able to fight for more than just Best Picture.
  • Winner: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Documentary (Feature)

  • My Prediction: CitizenFour
  • My Spoiler: Virunga
  • Winner: CitizenFour

Documentary (Short Subject)

  • My Prediction: Joanna
  • My Spoiler: The Reaper (La Parka)
  • Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Film Editing

  • My Prediction: Boyhood
  • My Spoiler: Whiplash
  • Winner: Whiplash

Foreign Language

  • My Prediction: Ida (Poland)
  • My Spoiler: Leviathan (Russia)
  • Winner: Ida

Makeup

  • My Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy
  • My Spoiler: Foxcatcher
  • Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Music (Original Score)

  • My Prediction: Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • My Spoiler: Jóhann Jóhannsson for The Theory of Everything
  • Winner: Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel

Music (Original Song)

  • My Prediction: “Glory” from Selma
  • My Spoiler: “Everything is Awesome” from The Lego Movie
  • Winner: “Glory” from Selma

Production Design

  • My Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • My Spoiler: Mr. Turner
  • Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Short Film (Animated)

  • My Prediction: Feast
  • My Spoiler: The Dam Keeper
  • Winner: Feast

Short Film (Live Action)

  • My Prediction: Parvaneh
  • My Spoiler: Aya
  • Winner: The Phone Call

Sound Editing

  • My Prediction: American Sniper
  • My Spoiler: Birdman
  • Winner: American Sniper

Sound Mixing

  • My Prediction: Whiplash
  • My Spoiler: American Sniper
  • Winner: Whiplash

Visual Effects

  • My Prediction: Interstellar
  • My Spoiler: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  • Winner: Interstellar

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

  • My Prediction: The Imitation Game – Though it is going to be a close one.
  • My Spoiler: Whiplash
  • Winner: The Imitation Game

Writing (Original Screenplay)

  • My Prediction: Birdman
  • My Spoiler: The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • Winner: Birdman
Percentage Correct: 18/24 – 75%
Percentage from 2014: 21/24 – 87.5%
Biggest Winner: Birdman (4) & The Grand Budapest Hotel (4)
Other Winners:
Whiplash (3)
American Sniper
Big Hero 6
Boyhood
CitizenFour
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Feast
Ida
Interstellar
Selma
Still Alice
The Imitation Game
The Phone Call
The Theory of Everything
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